While Americans discuss the health care system or abortion, Chinese mainlanders take sides on whether the Hukou system should be abolished or not. The Hukou system is one of the hottest topics debated in China, yet it receives little attention beyond Chinese shores. A hukou (湖口) is an official household registry permit that every Chinese citizen receives at birth. There are two kinds: an agricultural hukou and a non-agricultural hukou. Chinese citizens born in cities own a non-agricultural hukou (also called an urban hukou) while Chinese citizens born in rural areas own an agricultural hukou (rural hukou). The hukou serves as a residential permit, a work permit, and even a passport. It allows Chinese citizens to enjoy the benefits of their locality. But, as in any country, one place’s benefits might be lacking or inadequate compared to somewhere else. But In China, moving to a city is nearly impossible. The dramatic difference between rural life and urban life is difficult enough, but because of the Hukou system, rural hukou holder is legally forbidden to reap the benefits of city life.

The Hukou system breaches issues of morality, population control, and even national policy. Critics argue that the hukou violates human rights by forbidding freedom of mobility. They argue that the hukou turns rural migrants into “second-class citizens,” disenfranchising them of the same rights as city dwellers. In addition, the Hukou system seems to go against China’s mission for urbanization, clearly outlined in the most recent 5-year plans. On the other hand, advocates argue that the Hukou system is a pragmatic population control tool that China needs. If abolished, China’s cities would be crushed by the overwhelming migration of rural dwellers.

The Hukou system has been in place since the Shang dynasty but it was fully implemented during the Mao era. During the 1950s, the Hukou System was one of the major tools that restructured the countryside. Its original purpose was to control population movement, primarily from rural areas to urban ones. Why? The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was committed to reduce urban unemployment and relieve large cities, like Beijing and Shanghai, of population crowding. During the Japanese invasion and civil war between the Guomindang and CCP, large cities like Shanghai became safe havens for wartime refugees. In an effort to redistribute population and decrease unemployment in cities, the CCP encouraged and helped people relocate from urban centers to the countryside. Starting in 1951, national policies were gradually established dividing Chinese society into urban centers and rural areas. Cities were clear of shanty towns and squatters while the country side assumed the role of “breadwinner” for urbanites. In this context, the Hukou system solidified.

Today, the Chinese question the hukou because it has created large socio-economic problems. Before, one needed a permit to even travel from city to city, but they were often denied. Every city or village became isolated from one another. Since then, reforms have loosened up the severity of travel restrictions. However, moving residences from one city to another is still extremely difficult for the common Chinese man or woman. What has brought attention to the faulty Hukou system is the “floating population” – rural migrants who leave their hometowns in the countryside in search of better jobs in cities. Most of these rural migrants cannot get good jobs because they own agricultural hukous. These migrants are usually in their twenties and thirties. They come from central or western China and seek jobs in large cities near the coast, such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Some of the jobs they fill include industrial workers, street vendors, housemaids, nannies, construction workers, street cleaners, or beggars. Their working conditions are often described as the 3D’s – dirty, dangerous, and difficult. They work long hours with low pay. Their jobs are menial or dangerous. They receive neither respect from urban citizens nor any city compensations, such as retirement benefits, housing, or workers’ compensation. For instance, if a rural migrant gets hit by a car, he or she is likely to receive less or even no insurance compensation compared to someone who owns an urban hukou. Some who are victims of work injuries are simply fired without any proper health insurance to pay for medical procedures. These rural migrants often end up crippled and can never again find a job. The “floating population,” as described in the media, is massive. The social and legal discrimination they face because of the Hukou system widen the gap between rich and poor. The discrepancy has become so critical it could be a cause for social unrest within China – a situation the CCP wants to avoid at all cost.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the average monthly income for migrant workers in 2010 was 1,600 Yuan, one thousand Yuan lower than the national urban average of 2,687 Yuan. Education is another frequently used example. When rural families move to cities, migrant worker parents work but their children are denied schooling because they do not have urban hukous. This dilemma creates huge discrimination against migrant worker children who cannot be educated in the same institutions as their urban peers. Another argument pro-hukou abolishment is how it would actually help improve the economy. Removing the Hukou system can create more urbanization opportunities. As rural farmers rush to cities, they leave their farming plots open for the government to industrialize or urbanize. On the other hand, this process also favors hukou supporters as they argue this would be taking advantage of farmers.

Individuals and agencies that want to maintain the Hukou system argue that its abolishment would create more chaos. Cities would be flooded with people from rural areas in search for jobs. Infrastructure would not withstand. Companies would not be able to employ so many people at once. City outskirts would become squatter towns. In this circumstance, the economies of large cities like Shanghai and Beijing would run the risk of crashing, taking China’s economy down with them. Thus, the abolishment of the Hukou is too difficult to achieve without risking financial suicide.

The Chinese government has attempted reforms, adjusting the Hukou system to better accommodate rural migrants and alleviate this evolving dilemma. A rural migrant now has the option of converting his or her agricultural hukou for a non-agricultural one in the following ways: marrying an urban resident, finding a job where an employer is willing to sponsor an urban hukou, or investing in real estate in the city. In Shanghai, a rural migrant could apply to change his or her hukou status after living in Shanghai for seven years with a stable job. However, these options all require a certain amount of money. Most migrant workers cannot afford to live in the city for seven years as street cleaners. Often, students with rural hukous attend college in large metropolises, hoping to increase their chances of finding a job in the same city upon graduating. In reality, many of these students must return home because companies are unwilling to sponsor their hukou, especially with the supply of urban hukou owners also looking to be employed. And sadly, the discrepancy between rural and urban has become such a social problem that marrying a rural migrant would be a social stigma for an urbanite.

The central government of China has yet to establish a national initiative for complete overhaul of the Hukou system. However, local governments at the municipal and provincial levels have taken it into their hands to test out reforms, such as Chongqing and even Shanghai. Still, the Hukou system lives on. In its evolution, it has become fundamentally ingrained in Chinese society but it is also a severe disruption of the “harmonious society” so desired by the Chinese government. Whether the Hukou system will be reformed enough to close the gap between rural and urban citizens remains debatable. On the other hand, prolonging the existence of the Hukou could lead to major chaos within China.

Sources:

Cheng, Tiejun and Mark Selden. “The Origins and Social Consequences of China’s Hukou System.” The China Quarterly No. 139 (1994): 644-668. Web. 20 Jan. 2012..

The free mobility of a global workforce is an issue rarely covered by the media, yet it remains a heated debate topic between businessmen and policy makers. Free mobility of a global workforce allows companies to recruit international talents more easily and frequently. Governments often believe it should employ citizens before ‘foreigners.’ However, as our world becomes more globalized, companies should be allowed to choose freely their employees based on talent rather than protectionism. In an interconnected world, businesses can only succeed if their employees understand how to interact and work with people from different backgrounds and cultures. However, when governments implement policies to discriminate against ‘aliens,’ then talent is lost. Unfortunately, the barriers on achieving a global workforce are present both nationally and internationally.

Take China’s Hukou system for example. The Hukou system is China’s household registry system. Hukous are either rural or non-rural and grant country dwellers and urban dwellers work and residential permits in their city of birth. However, The Hukou system makes it close to impossible for Chinese rural citizens to move to urban centers to live or work there. For businesses, such as foreign enterprises, the Hukou system limits the talent pool of potential recruits as Chinese citizens from the West are less exposed to international companies that are more likely to establish branches in Eastern China.

China’s mobility restriction can be compared to the United States’ labor immigration laws. The labor certification process often limits businesses from recruiting international talents. The Labor Certification application puts U.S. citizens at an advantage compared to foreign workers when being recruited. However, this tool is analogous to The Hukou system in that it reduces the pool of potential talents that companies would want to consider. As the world globalizes, this pool is not guaranteed to be as internationally minded as it should be in order for a business to succeed abroad or even at home.

Global workforce mobility without “global business diplomacy” undeniably provides seeds for angry citizens’ activism and policy makers’ agendas. For instance, Americans see in outsourcing nothing more than the Chinese stealing their manufacturing jobs. And vice versa, Chinese workers see nothing more than extreme capitalism looking for cheap labor. It does not need to be this way. Global corporations are already engaged in the development of local communities in the United States. As companies from industrial countries, such as the United States, begin to tap into emerging markets, they will need to combine business transactions with economic development and operate with an international workforce to succeed. Ultimately, with globalization at work, free mobility of a global workforce allows for more free trade and “business without borders.”

As an American living in China, China’s road to democracy seems more unrealistic each day. I’ve often heard the Chinese, whether expatriates in America or here in China, say that the National People’s Congress (NPC) is a joke. It’s hard to believe China will become a democracy when the Chinese themselves find no urgency in changing their political system. What makes democratization even harder to believe is China’s booming economy despite the country’s authoritarian government. Claiming China will become a democracy in the long-run and believing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) intends to follow the U.S. model is flawed logic. Economically, China appears to have no need for democracy. While politically, the Chinese demand no democracy.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and thus the threat of communism, the U.S. has assumed the triumph of capitalism and thus the triumph of democracy. Through the 1990’s, American leaders and politicians have endorsed the theory that “economic freedom creates habits of liberty. And habits of liberty create expectations of democracy,” as George W. Bush Jr. eloquently phrased it at the turn of the millennium. Yet today, China continues to challenge this theory. China’s GDP growth rate, at 9.1% in 2009 according to the World Bank’s calculations, is just one example of the intensity of China’s modernization. Since Deng Xiaoping’s “Socialism with Chinese characteristics,” China’s government has succeeded in balancing a capitalist economy while squashing all political opposition. More than thirty years after Deng’s initial economic reforms, China is now poised to overtake the American economy “between 2020 and 2035” (Song), according to moderate statistics. This prediction alone threatens the Washington Consensus, defined as “an ambitious program of economic reforms involving liberalization, deregulation, privatization, free trade, tax reform and fiscal discipline” (Levine) eventually leading a country to democracy.

China’s rapid modernization under an authoritarian government has disproved the Western relationship of capitalism and democracy, which so many American leaders have adopted as a part of their foreign policy. Although China suffers from interior problems such as overpopulation, a growing two-class society, inflation, and so on, China continues to reap the rewards of capitalism without breaking under the CCP’s control. As Paul Levine said, “Despite serious social and environmental problems, the economy is booming and the middle class is expanding.” In China, democracy has proven unnecessary for economic growth and success so far. From an economic standpoint, China does not need democracy to continue prospering. And vice versa, China’s fruitful capitalist endeavors do not signal the Asian country’s democratization.

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Since capitalism won’t drive democracy in China, the alternative is political reform. This seems to leave two options: the abdication of the CCP as China’s “sole, political party in power” (Song) or a political revolution overthrowing the CCP. The first option is irrational while the second has no social backing. Socially, the demand for democracy is low. Evan Osnos, a reporter from The New Yorker, wrote an essay about traveling to Europe with a group of Chinese. He writes about Promise, a Chinese undergraduate student, who told him he would rather use Renren than Facebook because it is easier to access: “I recognized that kind of remove among other urbane Chinese students. They have unprecedented access to technology and information, but the barriers erected by the state are just large enough to keep many people from bothering to outwit them” (Osnos 6). Not only does the “can’t-be-bothered” attitude prevail in China, but the nonchalance towards social justice makes a revolution in the name of democracy unimaginable. The Chinese are not attracted to the American model of democracy but rather the celebrities, the brands, and the up-and-coming technology. Evan Osnos writes: “Promise could talk to me at length about the latest Sophie Marceau film or the merits of various Swiss race-car drivers, but the news of Facebook’s role in the Arab uprisings had not reached him.” Political reform in favor of democracy cannot thrive in a complacent atmosphere.

The Chinese are not simply complacent towards democracy; they are defeatist. The CCP has succeeded in making the Chinese believe that there is too much at stake to struggle for democracy. The solution is to deal with the authoritarian regime rather than defy it. James Fallows writes: “Chinese bloggers have learned that if they want to be read in China, they must operate within China, on the same side of the firewall as their potential audience” (Fallows 181). If anything, China’s capitalist ways have only empowered the party’s stronghold. The party provides access to the Internet yet censors the information. The party allows weibos to exist but deletes any information that defies party leadership within seconds. The party responds to massive incidents, usually concerning urban evictions or rural migrants, but still won’t allow citizens to have a voice in their own government. For instance, Chinese citizens are allowed to vote, but they have no idea who the candidates are. What’s more, these candidates have been previously nominated by the CCP. The educated Chinese who live in cities – China’s middle class, if you will – are entirely aware of these pseudo-democratic efforts. And although they express their irritation, their ultimate reaction is a shrug and a scoff at the mockery.

China’s modernization and booming economy in spite of its authoritarian government has disillusioned many Westerners of China’s democratic fate. The China model has negated the theory that capitalism ultimately leads to liberal values and eventually democracy. It appears that only a grave crisis could move the Chinese to rebel against the CCP and choose to establish a democratic political system. Democracy is not in sight for the Chinese, even in the long-run. Since China’s economy does not seem to rely on democracy to continue prospering, unless the Chinese demand democratic values, it is futile, even humorous, to claim China will ultimately become a democracy.

Bibliography

Fallows, James. Postcards From Tomorrow Square: Reports From China. New York: Vintage Books, 2009. Print.

Levine, Paul. “China Fantasy.” Lecture. 5 Oct. 2011.

Osnos, Evan. “Chinese Citizens On Tour In Europe.” The New Yorker. The New Yorker, April 2011. Web. 11 Oct. 2011. < http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/04/18/ 110418fa_fact_osnos?currentPage=1>.

Song, Guoyou. “China’s Government and Politics.” Lecture. 22 Sept. 2011.

Song, Guoyou. “China’s Rise in the World?” Lecture. 12 Oct. 2011.

World Bank. “World Development Indicators.” Web. 11 Oct. 2011.

China’s rapid development and expanding economy has occurred at the expense of the environment. The massive industrialization is a leading cause of water pollution. Although laws and policies against factories dumping waste-water in water sources do exist, implementation at the local level has been ineffective. Factories are often free to pollute the water without any penalties. The widespread and unlimited dumping of municipal and domestic waste has caused lakes and rivers in China to become so polluted they are unfit for human contact, even lethal if the water is consumed. In extreme cases, consequences include “cancer villages” and rivers running red like blood. The World Health Organization (WHO) forecasted water-pollution related deaths at 54,900 per year. Even in cities as developed as Shanghai, city residents still cannot drink the water that comes out of their faucet. Shanghai’s tap water problem provides an ideal case study for China’s water pollution situation, exposing the dichotomy of an advanced city that still has to deal with the issues of a developing country.

A World Bank study reports that 13 out of 15 major cities along the seven main source rivers in China are severely affected by polluted water. However, these same rivers are the primary water sources for major cities, such as Nanjing and Shanghai. For instance, the Huangpu River provides 20 million people in Shanghai with potable water, which amounts to 80% of the water supply for life and industry, while the Yangtze River covers the other 20% of water supply. Both rivers are among the most polluted in China, yet they remain main sources of surface water for Shanghai. China’s National Environmental Protection Agency acknowledges that industrial waste is the biggest polluter. In Shanghai’s case, this results from the 12,400 industries on the banks of the Huangpu River in Shanghai proper alone. Fifty-eight percent of these industries’ sewage is released into the Huangpu and its tributaries. The most toxic waste comes from the steel, chemicals, machinery, electronic components, textiles, and energy industries, “which contribute about two-thirds of the industrial sewage discharge.” The Huangpu River’s pollution is less toxic at its source, the Dianshan Lake, but worsens as industrial waste is discharged along the river and makes its way towards the mouth, where Shanghai lies. Because of the heavy pollution of these two rivers, Shanghai residents must extensively disinfect the water, leading to even more chemical contamination.

Shanghai’s municipal water system disinfects water with chlorine, which has led to a growing concern about the “mutagenicity of municipal drinking water” and its correlation to cancer. Mutagenicity is the transformation of compounds into toxic ones. Shanghai chlorinates its water at least twice to prevent pathogens from contaminating the water during the delivery process, but multi-chlorination induces mutagenicity. The Shanghainese often complain that their water smells and tastes bad, reporting the “strong smell of ‘bleaching powder.’” This odor and taste is likely attributed to the chlorination process. Research suggests that this extensive chlorination might actually further contaminate Shanghai’s raw water because of chlorine’s carcinogenic nature and the increased chances for mutagenicity.

Despite efforts to improve water quality at the source, Shanghai’s drinking water is further polluted by the city’s water distribution system. Many water pipes need replacement due to their decaying infrastructure. Of the 7,000 km of water pipes, 800 km have been in use for over 30 years. The rapid development and increasing population of Shanghai makes this necessity urgent. First, internal corrosion of these iron pipes pollutes the tap water as it travels to sink faucets, releasing toxic metals into the water: “More than 5,000 km of the pipe is made of gray cast iron and does not have any anti-corrosion coating.” Second, some of these pipes are so old that they have cracks up to 11 centimeters long, allowing leaks and exposing the treated water to external pathogens. The internal corrosion is often due to the intense disinfection of the raw water by treatment plants. In this way, the water treatment is compromised given the potential for lead-poisoning.

The government has recognized Shanghai’s water pollution problem and has made several attempts to alleviate the issue through clean-up projects, such as the Suzhou Creek Rehabilitation Plan and the Shanghai Sewerage Project. Suzhou Creek is one of the main tributaries of the Huangpu River. Starting in 1998, the Suzhou Creek Rehabilitation Plan consisted of several phases that have been achieved over a twelve-year period. The Shanghai Municipal Government established this project “to improve water quality, strengthen water resources management, and improve flood control.” In tandem, the Shanghai government implemented the Shanghai Sewerage Project (SSP) helped by World Bank funding. In a series of three phases, the SSP aimed to pre-treat wastewater before discharging it back into the Changjiang Estuary.

The most recent project challenging Shanghai’s water pollution involves opening a new reservoir to rely less on the Huangpu River as Shanghai’s primary water resource. Opening in December 2010 in a trial-run, the 70 square kilometer Qingcaosha Reservoir sources water from the Yangtze River, providing potable water to about 11 million people in 12 different districts. Fu Jianrong, a representative of the Shanghai Water Authority, told the Global Times how “the quality of water derived from the Huangpu River is classified at the fourth-highest level according to national water quality standards, but that coming from Qingcaosha, which obtains water from the Yangtze River qualifies as second-best…The standard is set higher, with improved levels of oxygen and reduced quantities of chlorine, iron and manganese.” The second stage of development for the Qingcaosha Reservoir aims to provide 5 million people living in the southern Pudong area with improved, potable water. The ultimate goals of the Qingcaosha Reservoir are to be fully operative by 2015 and to become Shanghai’s principle water source, providing the city with 70% of its water.

Despite government efforts, the fact remains that Shanghai’s tap water is still undrinkable. That is not to say government efforts are futile. Suzhou Creek has come a long way since before the 1998 project began. In April 2010, Shanghai opened the first river tour on the Suzhou Creek, allowing people to enjoy the view without the strong odors that once permeated the area. Nonetheless, Shanghai residents still refuse to drink the city’s water. Beyond health hazards, water pollution costs China “somewhere between 8 and 12 percent of GDP each year.” Yet, the national government spends less than 1% of its GDP on environmental protection, placing the world’s largest polluter below the international average expenditure. If development is expected to continue, the Chinese government should balance industrialization with environmental protection, by enforcing water pollution regulations, initiating more clean-up efforts, and investing in more sophisticated water treatment methods. In this way, China can establish a standard for environmental safety that will carry the country as it grows.

Bibliography

Blacksmith Institute. Transforming An Urban Waterway Shanghai, China. Web. 5 December 2011.

Bueno, Sharon M. “Shanghai Makes Its Mark in Trenches.” Trenchless Technology, 1 January 2006. Web. 5 December 2011.

Du, Qiongfang. “Qingcaosha Reaches 3.5 mln More People,” Global Times, 9 June 2011. Web. 5 December 2011 .
Innovation Center Denmark: Shanghai. Background Material on Water Resources in Shanghai. PDF. 5 December 2011.

Liu, Dong. “From Stench to Serenity,” Global Times, 2 September 2011. Web. 5 December 2011.

“Pollution turns river red in Central China,” New York Times, Feb. 27 2008.

Norwegian Energy & Environment Consortium. Old Pipes Stymie Water Quality. 28 June 2011. Web. 5 December 2011.

Pure Living: Indoor Environmental. Water Quality. 2011. Web. 5 December 2011.

Ren-Yuan Song et al. “Internal Corrosion of Pipes in Public Water Distribution Networks.” National Report: P.R. China 1994, 1-2: 13-14. Web. 5 December 2011.

Starr, John Bryan. Understanding China: A Guide to China’s Economy, History, and Political Culture. New York: Hill and Wang, 2010. Print.

Ward, Robert M. and Liang Wen. “Shanghai Water Supply and Wastewater Disposal,” The Geographical Review. 1995. PDF. 5 December 2011.

Winalski, Dawn. “Cleaner Water in China? The Implications of the Amendments to China’s Law on the Prevention and Control of Water Pollution.” J. Envtl. Law and Litigatio. PDF. 5 December 2011.

World Health Organization. Country profile of Environmental Burden of Disease: China. 2009. PDF. 5 December 2011.

It has been about a week since I have been back from Shanghai, China. During my semester studying abroad, I observed the peculiarities and the similarities between Chinese and American lifestyles. Both in my studies and everyday life, I discovered the predominant challenges facing Chinese society. For instance, Shanghai – China’s largest city – still suffers from contaminated tap water. Although I took showers and brushed my teeth with the tap water, I could not directly drink from the tap. In the following blog posts, I will elaborate on several of the issues facing China, such as this water quality problem. I will also describe observations I made in Shanghai about Chinese habits, fashion trends, development, and more.

Reflecting on my time abroad, I realized how Shanghai is still a very new, modern city. If you don’t remind yourself of this, the construction going on in Shanghai and on the outskirts of the city can be overbearing. Sometimes, I longed for the ‘Old Shanghai’ that I studied in my ‘Modern History since the 1840s’ class or read about in Lisa See’s Shanghai Girls. But, that is one thing I would remind foreigners traveling to Shanghai, or anywhere else in China for that matter: China is still a developing country. Transition happens every day, even in the mega-cities. “In with the new, out with the old” should be a motto of life in Shanghai. Sometimes a day in Shanghai feels completely disjoint. You’re waiting twenty minutes for your Café 85 coffee, yet hopping out of the way, barely in time, of a speeding motorbike. You are basically an entire day ahead of your friends and family in America. Your day is filled with school, getting lunch on the street, visiting neighborhoods, going out even during the week (under the pretext that it’s ‘Shanghai’). Before you know it, four months are over and you’re already on your way back to sunny California. For me, Shanghai magnified how fast life moves and how change happens all the time. Those are lessons I took back home with me. I plan to remember them to keep me on my toes when I am back in New York City, finishing up my second-to-last year in college.

Ironically, I cannot yet tell if I have changed holistically as a person from my experience studying abroad. However, I do know that I had an amazing time. If anything, I trust that I will return to Shanghai in the future either to continue my studies on U.S.-China relations or for work in the same area.

Westerners often depict China as the sleeping dragon (“Chimerica” if you will) that should not be awoken. Indeed, Napoleon’s quote lives on: “Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.” Here we are in the 21st century. The “dragon” has certainly opened and rubbed its eyes wide while the media dare interrogate it: “Is the Chinese century upon us?”

The question might be a bit premature. I’m not sure xiaolongbaos are giving McDonald’s a run for its money quite yet. Others might argue that the Chinese have already started to conquer the world using education while pointing at the increasing number of worldwide Confucius Institutes. But to be honest, every Chinese international student and friend with whom I chat reminds me that education beyond high school can truly only be found in an American university. In fact, the 2009/2010 Institute of International Education supports their opinion given that, “this year’s growth [of international students] was primarily driven by a 30% increase in Chinese student enrollment in the United States to a total of nearly 128,000 students, or more than 18% of the total international student population, making China the leading sending country.” What’s more, China has not exactly been the United States’ top national security threat, given Americans’ preoccupation for the Middle East. Socially and politically, China appears tame but when it comes to quantifying advances made by the Asian giant, the numbers deceive.

Goldman Sachs predicts China’s GDP will surpass the United States’ in 2020. The Economist predicts 2019. Even with the Chinese government’s mandatory cap on GDP growth rate of 7%, the U.S. can plan to see the Chinese GDP overcome its own by 2019 (see Graph 1). The consensus is that the U.S. should be worried, panicked, until China catches up. If the Chinese economy is as strong as the U.S.’, what does that mean for Americans? According to China GDP predictions, it seems logical to assume that China’s economy will not only overcome America’s but keep doing so for years to come. Does that automatically nominate China as the world’s superpower?

Graph 1: China GDP v. U.S. GDP

Not exactly. China’s GDP exceeding the U.S.’s will primarily have geopolitical consequences. China might begin to allocate a greater percentage of its GDP to military spending. The Asian country has already begun to accelerate its military investments, making it the “world’s second largest military budget and accounts for 7.3 percent of world military spending,” as blogged by Bruce Bartlett in the NYT’s “Economix.” Another consequence could be that China’s voice and influence might weigh more in debates between countries. For instance, the Pakistani government gets most of its military support from the U.S., but it has begun to leverage this one-way trade by engaging with China, especially now that the Chinese’s rise looks promising. Despite these alarming examples, China’s seizure of world power will not depend solely on numbers crossing. Before China can impose its values upon the world and settle onto the already-warm throne, it will need to gain credibility at home and with its neighbors. China’s GDP overcoming the U.S.’s is a great economic achievement, but GDP is a only an indicator of economic progress not a determinant for Chinese hegemony.

China’s growth seems outstanding because its economy is undergoing heavy, industrial growth that modernized countries have already exhausted. But, it’s all relative. You could compare China’s economic success to the United States’ postwar prosperity. The booming automobile industry, the highways under constant construction, and the countless investments in factories and real estate have contributed to China’s towering growth rates of 12.7% (2006), 14.2% (2007), 9.6% (2008), and 9.1% (2009). However, China simultaneously shares the modern problems of the United States, such as the income gap.

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Conventionally, domestic politics are not expected to affect foreign policy. But in China, domestic issues affect all policies. Most noted is China’s large gap between the rich and the poor. The income inequality exists between the wealthier, city dwellers versus the poorer, rural Chinese. China’s focus in the last ten years to further increase urban sprawling has left rural areas stuck in time. A China Daily article reports that “urban per capita net income stood at 17,175 yuan ($2,525) last year, in contrast to 5,153 yuan [about $793 – brackets mine] in the countryside, with the urban-to-rural income ratio being 3.33:1.” These statistics are from the National Bureau of Statistics. “The problem lies in China’s extremely heavy dependence on investment in factories, infrastructure and apartment buildings to sustain growth” writes Keith Bradsher of the New York Times, while highways and public infrastructure spending begins to decline. The extraordinary city investments that already feed growing, local debts in addition to withdrawals from public infrastructure investments will ultimately slow the economy’s growth rate. Yet, China’s income discrepancy will still remain vast.

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Another modern problem China faces is its population crisis. The one-child policy has begun to harm China’s economy. According to Le Figaro’s reporting, China determined its population amounts to 1,3397 billion people but its growing rate is only 0.57%. China’s population problem resonates with the U.S.’s current social security issues, as “Baby Boomers” retire and the less populous, younger generations strive to support them. Diminished human capital will eventually injure the Chinese’s GDP growth rate, most likely slowing it down dramatically.

“Whatever goes up must come down.” Yes, China’s growth will ultimately slow down and perhaps even stagnate at the same levels as the United States’ GDP growth rate has done. In the meantime, will China truly become the world’s next super power? It is too early to commit to ‘yes’ or ‘no,’ but even if China does surpass the U.S. economically, will it be able to wage as much global influence as the United States has done for the last 50 plus years?

These questions don’t yet have answers. But rather than panic, America should seek to understand China’s position both domestically – the masses relationship with its government – and internationally – what the Chinese nation seeks to gain outside its borders. As Robert McNamara eloquently phrased in “The Fog of War:” “We must try to put ourselves inside their skin and look at us through their eyes, just to understand the thoughts that lie behind their decisions and their actions.” The West’s archaic fear and awful observation of the ‘Orient’s rise’ must cease and instead mature to understand and act upon China’s still-wobbly first steps in the international arena.

In any case, despite Napoleon’s ominous words, China (at least for the next ten years) will look after itself before brandishing its sword outside the box. After all, China does call itself the middle kingdom.

Blue Valentine is the kind of movie you come out of depressed or relieved. You’re relieved because you think that Cindy (Michelle Williams) and Dean’s (Ryan Gosling) relationship is nothing like the one you have. Or you’re depressed because you don’t even have a significant other in your life, and you’re telling yourself that even if you did have one, look at what would happen. Directed by Derek Cianfrance, Blue Valentine is the long, last sigh of a dying relationship. Dean and Cindy have been struggling to keep it alive for little Frankie (Faith Wladyka), but in the end, it’s just not worth it.

Premature love. That’s how I would describe Cindy and Dean. They could have, even should have, worked but they didn’t because of time. Actually, you’ll find that time often interrupts love. It either rushes or prolongs. In whichever case, humans in love tend to have very little patience. For Cindy and Dean, time rushed them, crashed them, into love.

It was love at first sight when Dean made eye contact with Cindy in an old-person’s retirement home. Dean worked as a mover while Cindy was studying to become a doctor. She also took a lot of time to take care of her grandmother. In a flashback that comes off slightly reality TV show-like, we see Dean frustrated and puzzled as he tries to find words to describe what he felt the moment he saw Cindy. She, on the other hand, is more concerned about her boyfriend Bobby (Mike Vogel). Does he really love her? Is she actually in love? Bobby’s your typical, heart-breaker jock, while she’s the “freak” who happens to be really pretty.

That’s Cindy and Dean before love. Then Dean gets all romantic. He charms the hell (literally) out of Cindy. Suddenly, her macho boyfriend, angry father, submissive mother, and aging grandmother no longer weigh her down because Dean sings goofy love songs to her, runs backwards with her holding meaningless signs, makes love to her. The desperate quest for love is over because of Dean and his kindness, fondness, love, love, love for her.

Except, she gets pregnant. At this point, is it still love when Dean, right there and then, decides to be a father, father of a child that’s not his? Is it still romance, or is it devotion? Sacrifice? Maybe it’s an epiphany? Dean does tell Cindy years later, “I didn’t want to be somebody’s husband and I didn’t want to be somebody’s dad, that wasn’t my goal in life. But somehow it was. I work so I can do that.”

You’re thinking that’s enough, right? Love. Complete adoration for one another no matter what. It’s not. Making a family means commitment. It means Cindy sacrificing her career plans to raise her child, forgetting herself, thanking Dean for sticking around – love.

It’s funny how much Dean amounts to the perfect man. Caring, respectful, loving, devoted, yet he doesn’t have the one thing to make it all relevant – a steady, profitable job. It’s hard to watch Cindy turn sour, regretting all of the love she gave, now desperate for any sign of job approval.

Blue Valentine is love in reality. It’s the happily-ever-after story. Except all the variables that could make it go wrong were plugged back in. What happens on the other side of the equal sign depends on time. How much time can a couple handle? Too much, so they tire of the wait? Or too little, so no love is left for the long-run?

Don’t cry this Valentine

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This morning, President of the Academy of Motion Picture Thomas Sherak and actress Mo’Nique announced the 2011 Oscar nominations:

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams as Charlene Fleming in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter as Queen Elizabeth in The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo as Alice Ward in The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld as Mattie Ross in True Grit
Jacki Weaver as Janine Cody in Animal Kingdom

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale as Dicky Ecklund in The Fighter
John Hawkes as Teardrop in Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner as James Coughlin in The Town
Mark Ruffalo as Paul in The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush as Lionel Logue in The King’s Speech

Best Actress

Annette Bening as Nic in The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman as Becca in The Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence as Ree in Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman as Nina Sayers in Black Swan
Michelle Williams as Cindy in Blue Valentine

Best Actor

Javier Bardem as Uxbal in Biutiful
Jeff Bridges as Rooster Cogburn in True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg as Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network
Colin Firth as King George VI in The King’s Speech
James Franco as Aron Ralston in 127 Hours

Best Director

David O. Russell for The Fighter
Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech
David Fincher for Inception
Joel and Ethan Coen for True Grit

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Foreign Language Film

Biutiful from Mexico
Dogtooth from Greece
In A Better World from Denmark
Incendies from Canada
Outside The Law from Algeria

Best Animated Feature Film

How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Best Picture

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Watch the Academy Awards live on February 27th.

Directed by David O. Russell, The Fighter summarizes the true-life story of Micky Ward (Mark Wahlberg) and his brother Dickie Eklund (Christian Bale). The Fighter is a simple story of hope. Older brother Dickie is a former boxing champ but has since taken to smoking crack. Younger brother Micky aspires and trains to be a boxer just like him. Older brother ruins younger brother’s chances. Younger brother realizes he doesn’t need older brother to make it. Older brother cleans up. Younger brother realizes he does need brother. Younger brother wins boxing title and becomes a champ. Everyone – mama, girlfriend, and seven sisters included – all live happily ever after.

The Fighter has the clichéd boxing plot, but its hope theme makes it a timely movie. Micky is led through the phases of denial, acceptance, and success by his support system: his girlfriend Charlene (Amy Adams), his father George (Jack McGee), and even Alice (Melissa Leo) and Dickie. The film starts out in 1993 Lowell, Massachusetts. Dickie and Micky are being interviewed, and we get a first glimpse of the two brother’s different personalities. Micky is quiet and shy, while Dickie can’t seem to stay in place. He’s proud, even garrulous. The movie then turns around to tell Micky’s story. He’s had a successful boxing run, but he’s reached an inflection point. His boxing career is heading downhill.

After losing against an opponent twice his size, Micky reaches a first crisis point. Unable to admit his brother’s inconsistent training and his mother’s managing incompetence, Micky chooses to hide his beat-up face from any humiliation. That’s until Charlene, after a pathetic first date, confronts him about the truth. Dickie is a crack-addict while Alice is still living in Dickie’s glory days. Charlene tells Micky, “Really think your family’s looking out for you?” Instead of submitting to denial, Micky could be getting paid to train in Las Vegas. But, it takes a broken right hand and a night of jail for Micky to react. He replaces his mother with a new manager and continues training while his brother serves his sentence in prison. But it’s not until his boxing match against Sanchez that he realizes his brother’s value – his brother who taught him the boxing basic, “shot to the head, shot to the body,” who always trusted his left-handed punch. Micky finally declares that he needs his entire “family” to succeed, and sure enough the movie ends with everyone making up.

The problem with The Fighter is that it comes off as a movie solely about its characters, but the boxing plot interferes. The main characters’ personalities seem watered down, and the touching scenes feel too distant. When Alice fetches Dickie from the junkie house and starts crying in the car while Dickie sings to her, the poignancy just isn’t there. It’s not the actors’ fault; Christian Bale and Melissa Leo both won a golden globe for best supporting actor and actress respectively. If anything, Bale and Leo’s awards are much deserved. However, the movie does end up being another boxer, underdog movie with an ordinary theme – hope.

If you would like to learn more about the Black Swan production, watch this video about the Swarovski crystal chandeliers used in the movie and the Rodarte costumes Nina wears.

Black Swan Behind the Scenes from ny lon on Vimeo.